Fundamentals be damned. Throw away that lucky rabbit’s foot. No need to waste time with that nonsense since stocks are “guaranteed” to go up from their current level.
How do we know? Take a look at the following table:
| 1st Quarter |
2nd Quarter | 3rd Quarter | 4th Quarter | |
| 1944 | low | high | ||
| 1948 | low | high | ||
| 1952 | low | high | ||
| 1956 | low | high | ||
| 1960 | high | low | ||
| 1964 | low | high | ||
| 1968 | low | high | ||
| 1972 | low | high | ||
| 1976 | low | high | ||
| 1980 | low | high | ||
| 1984 | low | high | ||
| 1988 | low | high | ||
| 1992 | low | high | ||
| 1996 | low | high | ||
| 2000 | high | low | ||
| 2004 | low | high | ||
| 2008 | high | low |
In the 17 times we’ve held a presidential election since World War II (“The Big One” for you Archie Bunker fans) the S&P 500 reached its annual peak during the 4th quarter. That’s a 65% success rate. Hit .300 in the majors and you’re a hall of famer. If there was an investing hall of fame this would qualify twice!
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