If performance is any kind of reliable measure the typical mutual fund investor just might warrant a meet and greet with Dr. Kevorkian.
It’s a bit extreme but sure gets the point across.
Since we’re bombarded with messages about ‘beating the market’ let’s look at how the typical investor faired in 2014.
According to the annual Dalbar Quantitative Analysis of Investor Behavior study the average equity fund investor earned 5.5% compared to 13.7% for the S&P 500. Fixed income investors faired no better earning 1.2% compared to 6.0% for the Barclays Aggregate bond index.
According to the report, “Perhaps the most compelling evidence that investor behavior leads to poor decision-making is the end result. An investor’s goal is to maximize capital appreciation while minimizing capital depreciation. The average mutual fund investor has simply not accomplished either goal.”
It’s not as if 2014 was simply a bad year.
Over the past 20 years equity fund investors earned 5.2%/yr compared to 9.9%/yr for the S&P 500. Over 30 years equity fund investors earned 3.8%/yr exceeding the rate of inflation by a scant 1%.
Fixed income investors lost ground when returns are adjusted for inflation. Over the past 20 years fixed income fund investors earned 0.8%/yr which is below the 2.3%/yr rate of inflation. In real terms (i.e. purchasing power) fixed income investors lost money.
The problem? Overly confident investors buy as markets are going up. They hold for too long. As markets turn down they panic. They sell at the lows (thus locking in losses) and wait for a recovery. Then what? They buy on the way up, hold for too long, panic at the downturn and sell to lock in losses.
It’s a vicious cycle of horrific behavior. To quote Albert Einstein: “Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.”
The recent credit crisis provides the perfect example. Investors (when not busy flipping houses) piled into financial markets in the mid-2000’s. When the proverbial poop hit the fan in October 2008 panic set in. The average equity fund investor lost nearly 25% that month compared to the broader markets that lost 7.4%
The solution? It isn’t buy and hold, buy and forget, trade constantly, complain about rigged markets, punish banks, give up on investing, turn a blind eye and opt for indexing, prayer, ask Uncle Sam for a handout, etc.
Becoming a better market timer might work. Yeah, right! Use your crystal ball to see into the future. It’s called guesswork. Otherwise buy into someone’s BS about how s/he knows what’s going to happen. It’s called buying into someone else’s guesswork (or the CNBC Employment Act).
How have these popular solutions worked out? Judging by the aforementioned performance data not too well.
The solution, therefore, is not to time the markets. What about an advisor? It’s one of the many areas where value is derived. An advisor is someone to hold your hand when you panic and stop you from making what are often the most destructive trades and allocations. S/he won’t have a crystal ball any clearer than yours but s/he can construct a portfolio that assumes an appropriate level of risk via diversified asset class exposure and helps you stick with it through ‘good’ and ‘bad’ times.
It’s money well spent compared to the typical decisions investors seem to make on their own. Skeptical? Check the returns. To paraphrase James Carville about the Bill Clinton campaign he ran, “It’s the data, Stupid.”
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